What proportion of actually-extraordinary-game-changing people experienced this class of failure at least once in their life, and nonetheless became extraordinary by persisting and eventually doing something else that didn't fail?
I'm guessing something like ~75-95% for less social people in less social environments, and ~5-25% for more social people in more social environments.
It seems like less social people (e.g. high intelligence + low charisma) will have a harder time getting feedback and improving their world models, and will be like a loose fire hose, except with immense amounts of cognitive labor being pumped out in random directions instead of high-pressure water. This causes problems if it steps on toes, and the retaliating people are also somewhat smart, and occasionally arrive at mental health-related exploits when selecting optimal retaliation strategies (obviously including plausible deniability).
More social people (e.g. high intelligence + high charisma) will be able to evaluate the space and the domain, finding and surgically exploiting arbitrage opportunities, with low risk of retaliation per opportunity.
What proportion of actually-extraordinary-game-changing people experienced this class of failure at least once in their life, and nonetheless became extraordinary by persisting and eventually doing something else that didn't fail?
I'm guessing something like ~75-95% for less social people in less social environments, and ~5-25% for more social people in more social environments.
It seems like less social people (e.g. high intelligence + low charisma) will have a harder time getting feedback and improving their world models, and will be like a loose fire hose, except with immense amounts of cognitive labor being pumped out in random directions instead of high-pressure water. This causes problems if it steps on toes, and the retaliating people are also somewhat smart, and occasionally arrive at mental health-related exploits when selecting optimal retaliation strategies (obviously including plausible deniability).
More social people (e.g. high intelligence + high charisma) will be able to evaluate the space and the domain, finding and surgically exploiting arbitrage opportunities, with low risk of retaliation per opportunity.